Ivory Coast must not be allowed to slide into civil war
As violence and killings escalate in Ivory Coast, there is little hope for our citizens without international intervention
On Tuesday four people were killed during a women’s protest march against Ivory Coast’s former president Laurent Gbagbo. Last week, another all-women march through the capital Abidjan, in support of the internationally recognised president of the country, was directly fired upon by troops loyal to Gbagbo and seven women peacefully exercising their democratic right of public assembly were killed.
There are multiple tragedies unfolding in the increasingly desperate and dangerous situation in Ivory Coast. Many international bodies, including the United Nations, now see the situation as close to civil war. More than 1,000 civilians have been killed since the beginning of December; some 70,000 Ivorians have fled across the border to Liberia; in Abobo, a suburb of the capital, 200,000 people have deserted their homes following violence against them.
Just this weekend, a violent militia loyal to Gbagbo, the “Young Patriots”, targeted and assaulted supporters of the internationally recognised president, Alassane Ouattara, and looted and torched properties, including my own. Since November, we members of his cabinet have been holed up in the Golf Hotel, surrounded by Gbagbo militias. It is agonising to know that while we’ve been unable to get to our homes, they have been destroying them.
These attacks are fuelled by language that is undeniably racial and raises the possibility that broader, organised attacks on specific ethnic groups – such as the world has seen in Rwanda and Zimbabwe – are being considered. This manmade disaster is not just a catastrophe for Ivory Coast, but for the country’s neighbours, such as Liberia, which, recovering from its own civil war, is ill-equipped to deal with such vast and sudden numbers of refugees.
The presidential election last November saw Ouattara elected by 10 percentage points in a poll lauded as free and fair and certified by the UN. It was intended to conclude the long negotiations towards a peaceful and democratic settlement for the country after years of civil war. The president throughout this process was Gbagbo: it was meant to be his chapter in this historic story, win or lose. But Gbagbo has been unable to countenance the fact that he lost, and his chapter is now increasingly likely to end in an international court rather than lauded in the memories of Ivorians.
The fear in Ivory Coast is that now, without international intervention, it may not be possible to halt the slide to a civil war. The International Crisis Group has warned that such a conflict is likely to lead to massive violence against citizens, with neighbouring countries drawn in.
The responsibility to halt a potential civil war lies, firstly, with the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas). Yet there is the fear that citizens of other west African states, millions of whom live in Ivory Coast, could be targeted by Gbagbo loyalists if their leaders continue to be vocal in supporting Ouattara.
But the fallout if Ecowas does not intervene is likely to be even greater; its leaders must remain resolute in their call for Gbagbo to stand aside.
There is now no possibility of a government of national unity, or a settlement in which Gbagbo himself is allowed to remain head of the nation. His actions since the election disbar him completely.
There have been moves by South Africa, as part of the African Union negotiating team, to agree a unity government including Gbagbo similar to that imposed on Zimbabwe in 2008. If this approach was unacceptable after such a decisive election win by Ouattara in November, it is even more unacceptable now, following the escalation of unrest and the killing of civilians.
The international community must also be more decisive. The UN has forces in Ivory Coast yet is struggling to hold off attacks on civilians, so must consider bolstering its presence. France, Ivory Coast’s former colonial power, must consider a military solution, as Britain did in Sierra Leone in 2000. Unlike in Libya, where military intervention considerations are complicated by the lack of Nato or other forces in place, the French have military already in Ivory Coast, making any action by them far more credible and logistically feasible. Given how France has been pilloried by the international media and its own civil society for its links to the former regimes in north Africa, the French government in concert with its EU allies can restore its reputation through undertaking to impose order in Ivory Coast.
Without decisive international intervention there is little hope for the citizens of our country, and as each day goes by the descent into civil war becomes less unthinkable. Neither Ecowas, nor the African Union, nor France, nor the EU can afford to fail to act. And the people of Ivory Coast cannot afford civil war.

Following the disputed election results in Cote d’Ivoire, there has been a wave of support for Dr Alassane Dramane Outtara in Malawi. The country’s President, Dr Bingu wa Mutharika, currently leads the African Union.
On 6 December, in the Malawian Parliament, Hon. Khwauli Msiska spoke out in favour of ADO and was duly seconded by Hon. Abubakar Mbaya of the United Democratic Front. He issued the following statement:
“Mr. Speaker Sir, I stand in this house today a very sad person, sad because of the way some governments in our continent are conducting themselves especially during elections where a genuine winner is robbed of victory. The trend is now gradually and steadily developing whereby voters are robbed of their democratic choices soon after elections by incumbent governments that refuse to accept defeat and handover power.
A case in point are the elections which have just been concluded in Ivory Coast where the opposition leader Dr. Alassane Ouattara won with 54% of the vote and the results were duly announced by the Independent Electoral Commission of that country only to be overturned by the Constitutional Council and declared the incumbent Laurent Gbagbo the winner.
The UN election observers alongside other international observers endorsed Dr. Alassane Ouattara as the winner. Hence, notable figures such as the UN Secretary General Dr. Ban Ki-moon congratulated the long time opposition leader on his poll victory and urged Gbagbo to “do his part for the good of the country and cooperate in a smooth political transition of the country.” Likewise, world leaders and bodies including US President Barrack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, European Union, and ECOWAS echoed Ban’s support for Ouattara.
Mr. Speaker Sir, it is also pleasing that in an emergency meeting on Saturday, the African union (AU) backed Mr. Ouattara as President according to France 24 website. Further to this, the former South African President Thabo Mbeki was assigned by the AU to mediate on this matter, an initiative that we should all applaud.
Mr. Speaker, Sir, I, therefore, call upon this House and the AU Chairman our President Prof Dr. Bingu wa Muntharika to urge the leaders of Ivory Coast to respect and restore the democratic wishes of their people expressed through elections that made Dr. Alassane Ouattara emerge victorious in the Africa’s Cocoa rich nation.
I thank you Mr. Speaker Sir.”

Follwing elections in Zanzibar on 31 October 2010, in which the Civic United Front Presidential candidate, Seif Sharif Hamad, obtained 49% of the vote; a new Government of National Unity (GNU) has been formed.
Malim Seif has been appointed as First Vice-President of Zanzibar and the GNU cabinet now includes 7 CUF Ministers and one Minister without portfolio. These are as follows:
1.Minister of State 1st Vice Presidents Office: Ms Fatma Abdulhabib Fereji
2.Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs: Mr Aboubakar Khamis Bakary
3.Minister for Health: Mr Juma Duni Haji
4.Minister for Livestock and Fisheries: Mr Said Ali Mbarouk
5.Minister for Infrastructure and Communications: Mr Hamad Masoud Hamad
6.Minister for Trade, Industries and Markets: Mr Nassor Ahmed Mazrui
7.Minister for Information, Tourism, culture and Sports: Mr Abdilahi Jihad Hassan
8. Minister without Portfolio: Mr Haji Faki Shaali.

Hans van Baalen MEP, President of Liberal International, has spoken out on Burundi, supporting the resolution adopted by the Africa Liberal Network General Assembly in Cape Town.
http://www.liberal-international.org/congressExecutiveListAll.asp?ia_id=1257

ALN members the Civic United Front (CUF) have celebrated a resounding victory in the referendum held in Zanzibar on 31 July which marked a constitutional change guaranteeing the party a place in the Government.
CUF Secretary-General, Seif Sharrif Hamad, was understandably delighted at the results, which saw two-thirds of the semi-autonomous archipelago’s voters approve a coalition government being formed after the general elections on 31 October. As a result, CUF will be awarded a proportion of the Ministries in the Revolutionary Government based on the outcome of the polls. Should they come first, they will be awarded the positions of President and Second Vice-President of Zanzibar, or if they come second, they will be rewarded with the position of First Vice-President.
Violence has marred elections on the archipelago in the past, and the CUF-CCM agreement to share power on the islands has been welcomed by both the population and political commentators. It is hoped that the upcoming elections will be the first peaceful ones to take place on the islands of Unguja and Pemba since multi-party democracy was introduced in Tanzania in 1994. Despite the history of violence and intimidation, CUF has consistently held around half the seats in Zanzibar House of Representatives, and now has the opportunity to show what they can do in Government.
With the referendum now over, preparations for the general elections are well underway. The Liberal Democrats’ Westminster Foundation for Democracy programme will be working with CUF as they have in the past.

Liberal International President Lord Alderdice strongly condemned the arrest yesterday of Rakotonirina Manandafy, LI Vice President and leader of LI Full Member Party MFM, the Progressive Party of Madagascar. Mr. Manandafy, who was recently appointed prime minister by Madagascar’s ousted president Marc Ravalomanana, was arrested by armed soldiers loyal to Andry Rajoelina, the army-backed leader heading the regime that took power in the Indian Ocean nation on March 17.
At the Bureau Meeting of Liberal International in Vancouver, Canada on Friday, Lord Alderdice said: ‘Liberals from around the world were shocked and appalled by the violent arrest of Mr. Manandafy. We urge that he and other opposition leaders in Madagascar be immediately released without preconditions.
The recent resurgence of violence, disrespect for human rights and atmosphere of intimidation in Madagascar are very worrying. The events show that more than ever there is a need for dialogue and respect for key liberal values such as the basic freedoms of speech and assembly. The use of violence and bloodshed in resolving political disagreements will only further complicate reaching a peaceful solution.
The political movements of Madagascar must now return to engage in dialogue and resume negotiations to reach a compromise to return stability, democracy and the rule of law back to the country. The first International Contact Group meeting in Addis Ababa under joint African Union and United Nations auspices provides the best starting point to reach an acceptable compromise for all parties involved.’

Election outcomes often seem obvious and inevitable in retrospect. It needs to be remembered, however, that in this election the DA had to contend with the emergence of a significant new opposition party in Cope, and simultaneously had to compete for votes with almost every other opposition party and mount a nationwide challenge to the ANC. It was therefore never inevitable that the DA would experience the kind of growth that we have.
Our success in this election is a consequence of many factors, including Helen Zille’s inspired leadership, the repositioning of the party as a truly South African entity with the ability to win power off the ANC, and the efficiency with which our structures implemented the campaign.
Having said that, it remains the case that our greatest challenge going forward is to win more support from black South Africans. We will continue to work towards this objective with renewed determination. It is also the case that the DA has for many years now promoted the idea of a realignment of South African politics. We remain committed to this project but will insist that any realignment is based on an authentically shared commitment to the values of the open, opportunity society for all, because that vision is the only sustainable alternative to the ANC’s national democratic revolution.
We believe that we have done as well as we possibly could have in the context of this election and are therefore most pleased with the outcome. This result lays the groundwork for the future. In 2011 we hope to win cities and municipalities across the country, and this will form the basis of a sustained challenge on the national level in 2014. We would like to thank the nearly 3 million South Africans who voted for our vision of an open, opportunity society for all. We are grateful for their support and will pursue the mandate they have given us with vigour.
Excerpt from An Analysis of the DA’s performance:
The National Ballot:
DA Growth:
•    The DA grew by 34.7% (1 014 628 votes; 4.29 percentage points and 17 seats – to 67).
•    This is the third election in a row the DA has grown. It is the only party to have done this.
•    The DA is more than double the size of the next biggest opposition party (9.24 percentage points and 1.6 million votes bigger).
•    The DA’s growth, of over 1 million votes, is bigger than that of any other party.
Comparison:
The DA was the only party to grow in the National Assembly (leaving aside COPE and the APC, which both started from a 0% base). Every other party represented lost support:
•    ACDP: down by 0.79 percentage points (from 1.60 to 0.81)
•    ANC: down by 3.78 (from 69.68 to 65.90)
•    AZAPO: down by 0.05 (from 0.27 to 0.22)
•    ID: down by 0.81 (from 1.73 to 0.92)
•    IFP: down by 2.42 (from 6.97 to 4.55)
•    MF: down by 0.10 (from 0.35 to 0.25)
•    PAC: down by 0.46 (from 0.73 to 0.27)
•    UCDP: down by 0.38 (from 0.75 to 0.38)
•    UDM: down by 1.43 (from 2.28 to 0.85)
•    FF+: down by 0.06 (from 0.89 to 0.83)
10 Year Comparison:
(In 2000 the Democratic Party merged with the New National Party and the Federal Alliance to form the Democratic Alliance. In 2003 a small faction of NNP members crossed the floor back into the NNP, and later merged that party with the ANC.)
•    Since 1999 the DP/DA has grown by 1 418 492 votes and 7.1 percentage points, more than any other party.
•    In 2004 the DA grew by 403 864 votes (26.4%) and, in 2009, by 1 014 628 votes (34.7%).
The Provincial Ballot:
DA growth:
•    The DA grew in eight out of nine provinces, increasing the total number of DA seats in provincial legislatures from 51 in 2004, to 65 in 2009. It is represented by at least two members in every legislature:
•    Eastern Cape: Grew by 37.6% or 61 525 votes, to 10.0%
•    Free State: Grew by 39.8% or 34 130 votes, to 11.6%
•    Gauteng: Grew by 28.3% or 200 535 votes, to 21.9%
•    KwaZulu-Natal: Grew by 39.3% or 89 702 votes, to 9.1%
•    Mpumalanga: Grew by 26.0% or 20 085 votes, to 7.5%
•    North West: Grew by 36.7% or 23 803 votes, to 8.2%
•    Northern Cape: Grew by 44.0% or 15 520 votes, to 12.6%
•    Western Cape: Grew by 138.3% or 587 736 votes, 51.5%
The Western Cape:
•    The DA won an outright majority (51.5%) on the Western Cape provincial ballot and a majority in the legislature (22 out of the 42 seats).
•    Its growth in this province has been significant, not just in the 2009 election but in the 2004 election that preceded it.
•    In 2004 the DA grew by 124% or 235 649 votes to 27.1%, in 2009 it exceeded even that, growing by 138% or 587 736 votes and capturing in excess of 1 million votes in the province.
10 Year Comparison:
In the past three elections, the number of seats the DP/DA has won in provincial legislatures has systematically increased, from 35 in 1999, to 51 in 2004, to 65 in 2009.

Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille on Saturday unveiled the party’s new logo saying the party is launching a new vision for South Africa to make the country’s dream a living reality.
Zille said the re-launch of the party came with a new approach of campaigning for elections and a new determination to address the injustices and transcend the racial divisions of our country’s past.
Speaking at Constitutional Hill in Johannesburg, Zille said the change is aimed at attracting people who share the party’s values, but who have not historically supported the DA.
She said the country would see a new DA emerge which would be more diverse, more reflective of South Africa’s rich racial, linguistic and cultural heritage and more committed to providing excellence and equity in public service than ever before.
“We can overcome our past; we can turn South Africa into a safe, prosperous, free society in which everyone has a fair shot at achieving their dreams, irrespective of the circumstances of their birth.”
Zille went on to clarify what would stay the same within the party and what would change.
She said that the party’s vision of an open opportunity society for all, founded on the bedrock of its core values would remain the same, as would its championing of rights and freedoms of every person, enshrined in a Constitution.
“We have always stood for equal and ever-expanding opportunity. Not for some, but for all. We still do,” she said.
“We have always believed in the dignity and equality of each and every person, and promoted the language, culture and heritage of all the rainbow people, and we still do.”
The party had always fought for the security of the children, women and men of our country, who deserved to live without fear of criminals and still did, as well as remaining committed to clean government, exposing corruption and championing tolerance, excellence and personal responsibility.
“Here’s what’s new,” she said, “The DA is a party of government.”
“We are in government in Cape Town and in many other municipalities and we aim to be in government in various provinces after next year’s election.”
“We are determined to be in government in cities and towns across South Africa in 2011 and we will be part of national government in the near future.”
Where the DA was in opposition, it would continue to provide the critical oversight and policy alternatives which everyone expected of it, and the country required of it.
“But our purpose is not to be an opposition party; it is to be a party of government, and so, from now on, the DA no longer offers opposition and nothing else.”
“From today, we offer the people of South Africa a government that really can deliver a better future: a future in which every person is free, where everyone has access to life-changing opportunities, where growth and prosperity are shared by all, where every child is protected and safe, where each and every language and culture is respected and protected,” Zille said.
“That is our dream; that is our promise; that is what we offer and will deliver to the rainbow people.”
This new vision was reflected in the policy proposals which were currently being rolled out, covering every area of public life in South Africa.
“Only the DA has a comprehensive policy alternative to the challenges our country faces. Because underlying our offer is real substance – comprehensively researched and carefully considered.”
“It’s our sights and spirits, it signals hope and it’s grounded in our love for diversity.”
“The DA loves South Africa.”
“We love our rainbow people in all their glorious diversity -they are our inspiration and our hope.”
“We love the Constitution, which binds us to one another after so much division and despair.”
“The DA will not let down the land we love- we will never give up our dream for the rainbow people.”

Michael Sata had said he would not accept defeat. Zambia’s opposition party has written to the electoral commission demanding a verification of the results of last week’s presidential elections. Opposition leader Michael Sata narrowly lost the vote to President Rupiah Banda, but has claimed that the election was rigged. African regional election observers have said the poll was free and fair. Mr Banda had been serving as the interim replacement for President Levy Mwanawasa, who died in August.
Mr Banda’s swearing-in ceremony was held just two hours after election officials said he had won by 40.1% to Mr Sata’s 38.1%. The leader of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) said his priority was to fight poverty, and that he hoped to turn Zambia into an investment hub.
But Mr Sata has rejected the result, saying a “bunch of thieves” had stolen the vote.
Rupiah Banda was rapidly sworn in on Sunday
The party has written to the electoral commission to ask for a verification of how the votes were tallied, and says it will also go to court to demand a full recount.
“Knowing how corrupt the [electoral commission] are, I do not think we are going to get much from them,” Mr Sata told the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme.
“That’s why we now want to involve the courts of law.”
He claimed that the number of votes announced in one district was higher than the total population of that district.
Security was tight for the election. Late on Saturday evening, riot police fired tear gas at Mr Sata’s supporters when they set fire to market stalls and threw stones in a crowded Lusaka slum.
Mr Banda will serve until 2011, when Mr Mwanawasa’s term would have ended.