Written By; Elizabeth Adundo – Yogo
Head of Secretariat, ODM Women League, Kenya
In the 2020 US elections, young people seem poised for unprecedented levels of participation. “Young voters are going to be key to winning 2020,” declared one CNN headline. “These 7 Million Young People Can Beat Trump,” another headline on a New York Times op-ed, referenced those just coming of voting age in that election cycle.
These headlines are not new in many democracies, they often reflect in surge in youth activism, particularly protests around racial injustice, corruption, limited job opportunities and police brutality. In Kenya, just before the 2022 elections, pollsters offered a promise of increased youth engagement. According to a February poll of 18- to 29-year-olds, 83% believe people their age have the power to change the country. In June, a survey of college students found that 71% are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the upcoming election.
However, if history is any guide, these indicators of youth enthusiasm and interest will not necessarily translate to the ballot box.
In the recent concluded elections in South Africa, the story is way too familiar.
The empirical reality is that young people have always had dismal turnout rates. Despite being one of the largest potential voting blocs in the electorate, the majority of young people do not vote—not in 2024, or in previous elections. In fact, older voters often turn out at twice the rate of young people in parliamentary and/or presidential elections. This gap is even larger in local elections, where the turnout rate among older voters leads by about 50 percentage points. To put this in context, the difference in voting between young and older citizens is larger than the gaps found when comparing race and ethnicity, education, or socioeconomic status.
The gap in turnout between younger and older African voters is among the worst in the world.
And these turnout disparities have significant consequences in our civic life as Africans. Not only is it concerning because of the disparity in democratic participation, research shows that it has policy consequences, shaping not only who gets elected but also which policies get implemented. This is reflected in the way that Social Security is considered an untouchable third rail in politics, yet education spending is not.
Why is youth turnout so low? What can we do about it?
The cause of low youth turnout has been misdiagnosed, with conventional wisdom holding that younger people fail to turn out because they are apathetic and disillusioned about politics. The common refrain is that Millennials are cynical and self-absorbed, more concerned about taking selfies than impacting politics. But protests in the streets and the poll numbers clearly indicate that the conventional wisdom is wrong; the reason for low levels of youth turnout cannot be because of a lack of political interest or political motivation. In fact, over the past five presidential elections, an average of 85% of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed before the elections said they are interested in politics, 74% said they care who gets elected, and 81% said they intend to vote. Political motivation is already high among young people, so this can’t be the key to improving youth turnout.
The real problem among young people is that they often fail to follow through on their civic attitudes and intentions. The gap between intending to vote and actually voting is much larger for young people than for older ones. The key to understanding and solving youth turnout is identifying why young people fail to follow through on their participatory intentions.
What are the obstacles that impede young people from following through on their civic intentions?
In Kenya, Voter registration is an ongoing exercise, however, it’s still the lowest among the young people, in South Africa, the story is the same, and Voter registration among young people is the lowest of all age demographics
ISS researcher and author Lauren Tracey conducted 49 one-on-one interviews and 277 focus-group discussions with over 2 000 students in high school, Further Education and Training (FET) and university to understand what drives some young people to vote and discourages others.
Tracey’s research findings highlight that this demographic group, in rural and urban areas across all nine provinces, is concerned about four major problems – unemployment, corruption, poor infrastructure and poor education.
‘Young people are growing increasingly frustrated with these issues that continue to plague South Africa’, says Tracey. ‘Although they acknowledge the importance of voting, our findings show that young people often don’t identify voting as the best way to bring about change.’
She notes that corruption is a major disincentive to voting. Same story as their counterparts in Kenya.
‘The participants said that politics is full of corruption and self-enrichment, and they see no reason why they should be interested in it, as they gain nothing from politics and voting.
‘There are signs that the ruling African National Congress’ popularity is waning amongst young people and that this is a generation more open to changing their political allegiance than are their parents.’
According to the research, action taken in three areas could increase young people’s participation in elections: improving civic and voter education programs in schools; meaningful and dynamic outreach to the youth to raise awareness about politics and democracy; and using technology and social media better to link decision-makers and political elites with ‘hard-to-reach’ groups, such as young people.
